Predicting the VN-Index’s Next Moves Using Technical Analysis

Vietnam’s VN-Index (VNI) has demonstrated notable resilience in 2025, navigating through global uncertainties and domestic economic shifts. As of May 9, the index closed at 1,267.30, reflecting a modest year-to-date gain of 1.49% . Technical analysis offers valuable insights into potential future movements of the VN-Index, aiding investors in making informed decisions.Investing.com+1Investing.com+1

Current Technical Landscape

1. Moving Averages (MA):
The VN-Index is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. The 50-day MA stands at approximately 1,240, while the 200-day MA is around 1,200, suggesting strong underlying support levels .Investing.com

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI):
The RSI is hovering around 60, which is below the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that the market is not currently overextended and may have room for further upward movement .

3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD line is above the signal line, and both are in positive territory, reinforcing the bullish momentum. This crossover indicates potential for continued upward movement in the short term .

Support and Resistance Levels

Analysts anticipate the VN-Index to consolidate within a narrow range of 1,220–1,250 points in May, as investors await clearer developments in ongoing trade negotiations between Vietnam and major global partners .Vietstock

• Support Levels: 1,220 and 1,200

• Resistance Levels: 1,280 and 1,300

A breakout above 1,280 could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a drop below 1,220 might indicate a potential reversal.Vietstock+6ResearchGate+6Wikipedia+6

Volume Analysis

Trading volume has been relatively stable, averaging around 700 million shares per session. This steady volume supports the current price levels and suggests sustained investor interest. However, a significant increase in volume accompanying a price breakout would provide stronger confirmation of a new trend .

Market Sentiment and External Factors

Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, influenced by:

• Economic Indicators: Vietnam’s GDP growth projections remain robust, with expectations of continued expansion in key sectors.

• Trade Relations: Ongoing negotiations with major trading partners, including the US and China, are being closely monitored.

• Global Market Trends: Movements in global markets, particularly in emerging economies, are impacting investor confidence.Vietstock

These factors contribute to the current consolidation phase, as market participants seek clarity before making significant moves.

Technical Patterns to Watch

1. Ascending Triangle Formation:
The VN-Index appears to be forming an ascending triangle pattern, characterized by a horizontal resistance line at 1,280 and an upward-sloping support line. This pattern typically indicates a potential bullish breakout.

2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
Applying Fibonacci retracement from the recent low of 1,200 to the high of 1,280, key levels to watch include:

• 23.6% Retracement: 1,261

• 38.2% Retracement: 1,248

• 50% Retracement: 1,240Learn Online Trading

These levels may serve as potential support zones in case of a pullback.

Conclusion

The VN-Index is currently exhibiting signs of consolidation within a defined range, with technical indicators suggesting a potential for upward movement. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels, volume trends, and external economic factors to gauge future market directions. Employing technical analysis tools can enhance decision-making and risk management in this dynamic environment.

Further Reading and Resources:

• Investing.com – VN-Index Technical Analysis

• TradingView – VN-Index Chart and Analysis

• Vietstock – Market Forecasts